Prediction

1st Lt. Ehren Watada, 28, of Honolulu, is charged with refusing to ship out with his unit and conduct unbecoming an officer for accusing the Army of war crimes and denouncing the administration for conducting an “illegal war” founded on “lies.”

He will be convicted on all counts by the General Courts Martial, and he will receive the maximum sentence permitted.

He will appeal to the Army Court of Appeals (or whatever they call it.) He will claim his rights were trampled because the Courts Martial did not allow him to argue the legality of the Iraq War. He will lose this appeal, convection and full sentence will be upheld.

He will appeal to the Court of Military Appeals. They will not hear the appeal.

He will appeal to the US Supreme Court.
They will take the case. They will allow arguments on the legality of the war.
Stephens and Ginsburg will declare the war illegal.
Roberts, Scalia, Thomas, and Alito will uphold the legality of the war.
Kennedy, Breyer, and Souter are questionable, but I think they will uphold the legality of the US military action in Iraq.

Final answer:
7-2 the military action in Iraq will be declared legal.
9-0 the convictions and sentence will be upheld.


The military action in Iraq is legal under US law:
The US Congress Authorized the Use of Military Force and
The President has used military force in Iraq following the limitations within the AUMF.
The United Nations also authorized the use of force. (only a minor item, of obeying treaty requirements.)
The US Congress has periodically re-authorized the use of military force by funding the effort.


Lt. Watada please enjoy your time at Fort Leavenworth.
And your Dishonorable Discharge as Pvt. Watada.
And Mr. Watada, do remember to include this Federal Felony Conviction on all future job applications.

Mr Watada, your stunt of joining the Army, after the military action in Iraq began and then refusing to follow your deployment orders -- will not led to the impeachment of President Bush. It will not get the President accused of war crimes.